Forecast 2023Q1 DRAM Average Price Decline Converges to 13~18%
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Update time : 2023-01-17 09:13:51
According to TrendForce's research, due to weak consumer demand, memory sellers' inventory pressure continues, with only Samsung's inventory slightly reduced under its bidding strategy.
In order to avoid another sharp price drop for DRAM products, many suppliers such as Micron have started to actively reduce production, and it is estimated that the DRAM price drop in the first quarter of 2023 will converge to 13~18%, but the end of the downward cycle is still missing. Among them, PC and Server DRAM are still down by nearly 20%; Mobile DRAM is the item with the most compressed profit space, and is the item with more obvious convergence.
PC DRAM, due to the lack of demand in the notebook market, PC OEMs have reduced PC DRAM procurement for two consecutive quarters, the current PC DRAM inventory of about 9 ~ 13 weeks, but the first quarter is the traditional off-season, inventory depletion is still a high degree of difficulty. At the same time, Micron has already started a small production reduction for PC DRAM, and SK Hynix will follow suit in the near future. The overall PC DRAM bit output is expected to drop in Q1, but it is still clearly oversupplied. The three major DRAM suppliers are also actively reducing prices for DDR5, and the market penetration rate in the first quarter is likely to approach 20%. It is estimated that DDR5 prices will drop by about 18-23%, DDR4 by about 15-20%, and overall PC DRAM prices will drop by about 15-20% in the first quarter.
Server DRAM, by the off-season effect, long and short term material adjustment and the overall economic weakness, server demand declined, North American cloud service providers also began to reduce server procurement and construction speed. However, the production proportion of the original Server DRAM still continues to rise, and it is difficult to reduce the inventory pressure in the first quarter of 2023. Even if some suppliers begin to reduce production, but still can not effectively converge the price decline, DDR5 first quarter price decline is estimated to be about 18 ~ 23%, slightly higher than DDR4, but DDR5 first quarter import rate of only about 10%, so the Server DRAM price decline is mainly determined by DDR4, the estimated decline of about 15 ~ 20%.
Mobile DRAM, smartphone brands Mobile DRAM inventory after about six quarters of de-conversion, has reached an average of 5 ~ 7 weeks healthier water level, but the sales market downturn, smartphone brands continue to reduce the annual sales target of 2023, for Mobile DRAM inventory de-conversion has some difficulty. Suppliers plan to slow down the rate of decline in quotes, mainly because production cuts have been established and will continue to expand. In addition, Mobile DRAM has the lowest profit margin compared to other DRAM product categories, and with the market consensus of low demand, the strategy of price reduction to grab the market is less effective, so the quarterly price drop of Mobile DRAM in Q1 will be converged to 10-15%.
